Caerphilly: terrible for Labour, not that good for Reform
On these figures, Nigel Farage is NOT on course to be prime minister
The result of yesterday’s by-election was awful for Labour; but I doubt anyone reading this will be unaware of that. So rather than repeat the obvious, I offer two thoughts about Reform.
1. In last year’s general election, it won 20 per cent in Caerphilly – five points above its Britain-wide average. Yesterday it won 36 per cent. This 16-point rise matches its national polling average (up from 15 to 31 per cent).
However, by-elections at times of government unpopularity have often produced much bigger swings to insurgent parties – notably to the Liberal Democrats in the last parliament; they won seats with gains of up to 40 percentage points.
This time, of course, the insurgent vote was divided between Plaid Cymru and Reform. Plaid’s share was 26 points up on last year (when it won 21 per cent). Even so, the result suggests that Reform may be near its ceiling, and that it may struggle to rise, and sustain, support much above 35 per cent nationally. I wouldn’t go so far just yet to make that a firm prediction; but it’s a hypothesis that can be checked in future elections, not least next May.
Earlier this week, I showed that parties that do well in mid-term generally end up at the following election around ten points below their peak. If – and it’s a very big if – Reform peaks at around 35 per cent and slips back ten points it will end up with around 25 per cent at the next general election. Which leads us to…
2. …tactical voting. PC picked up a fair amount of tactical support yesterday from voters keen to stop Reform. Some Labour supporters may have lent their vote to Plaid. In addition, the Lib Dems and Greens, which won 9 per cent between them last year, saw their combined vote fall to 3 per cent.
Here’s the point. Without tactical voting, 25 per cent of the national vote is likely to give Reform 200-250 seats (depending on how the remaining votes are divided among the other parties). But if enough of the remaining 75 per cent are determined to defeat Reform locally, they will succeed – possibly costing Reform dozens of seats.
At this stage this is just one possible scenario. Many others are available, quite a few much of them more favourable to Reform. But, however privately he keeps the thought to himself, Nigel Farage should conclude that his party did not just fall short what it hoped for yesterday; it fell short of what he needed to be on course to become prime minister.
My reading of the result was that, once it was clear that Plaid Cymru was the party best placed to defeat Reform, the progressive vote gravitated to them. Whilst Labour is currently unpopular, my expectation (hope) is that the same pattern would be repeated so that Labour would hold many seats on the basis that they alone could defeat Reform, whilst Labour voters would vote for other progressive parties in large numbers again depriving Reform of gains. In a sense, a form of PR by the people in the absence of Parliamentary introduction of it.
Possibly the result is quite good for Farage. Since he has no practical plans to run the country, being always the (lucratively sponsored) bridesmaid but never the (buck stops here) blushing bride is probably his sweet spot.