You also need to factor in Kenyan's self-declared "sexism", so clearly aired in the latest BBC QT. This is anecdotal but I heard that Makerfield campaigners have, in the last few days, struggled to find any women still wanting to vote for Kenyon.
Whether this is strictly true or not, the light thrown on Kenyon's social media should further increase the gap between his and AB's popularity.
On the other hand, Reform are doubtless saving up some mega-sh*t anti-AB stories to throw out during the final hours where they could have the most impact for the undecided. It's all to play for ...
Really useful breakdown as the 10-day countdown begins. The variable that might break these turnout models over the next ten days isn't just false recall - it's the financial shock breaking over the electorate this morning.
With Brent crude hitting $97.60 and Savills officially reversing its property outlook to a 2% decline, voters will be walking into the polling booths absorbing a massive hit to their cost of living. If Burnham does win big, he'll prove a Labour candidate can hold a heartland seat against Farage while under a brutal macroeconomic squeeze - but even then, a messy leadership transition right as inflation spikes risks driving up mortgage and borrowing costs before the new PM even takes over.
Sorry to be picky but it isn't true that Reform has lead in every Poll in the last 13 Months. In two Polls they were equal with The Conservatives & in one of those also equal to The Greens.
You also need to factor in Kenyan's self-declared "sexism", so clearly aired in the latest BBC QT. This is anecdotal but I heard that Makerfield campaigners have, in the last few days, struggled to find any women still wanting to vote for Kenyon.
Whether this is strictly true or not, the light thrown on Kenyon's social media should further increase the gap between his and AB's popularity.
On the other hand, Reform are doubtless saving up some mega-sh*t anti-AB stories to throw out during the final hours where they could have the most impact for the undecided. It's all to play for ...
Really useful breakdown as the 10-day countdown begins. The variable that might break these turnout models over the next ten days isn't just false recall - it's the financial shock breaking over the electorate this morning.
With Brent crude hitting $97.60 and Savills officially reversing its property outlook to a 2% decline, voters will be walking into the polling booths absorbing a massive hit to their cost of living. If Burnham does win big, he'll prove a Labour candidate can hold a heartland seat against Farage while under a brutal macroeconomic squeeze - but even then, a messy leadership transition right as inflation spikes risks driving up mortgage and borrowing costs before the new PM even takes over.
Erudite piece, but sadly Burnham is beginning to resemble two other populist politicians, namely Farage & Polanski.
Sorry to be picky but it isn't true that Reform has lead in every Poll in the last 13 Months. In two Polls they were equal with The Conservatives & in one of those also equal to The Greens.