The truth about Trump's popularity

A memo to Keir Starmer as he heads to Washington

Prime Minister:

When you enter the Oval Office, President Trump is likely to boast how popular he is. Last Thursday he told reporters:

“Let me just tell you that I have today the highest poll numbers I’ve ever had. I have today the highest poll numbers of any Republican president ever.”

And in his speech the same day at a dinner for Republican governors, he said:

“I had an approval rating today of 71 and another one of 69. I have not heard of those numbers before.”

Both statements are simply wrong. Gallup has been tracking presidents’ ratings for eighty years. These are its figures for each president one month after they entered the White House.

Far from having the best rating of any president – Republican (red) or Democrat (blue) – he has by far the worst. Every other president enjoyed an approval score of at least 50% and a net rating of at least plus 20. Trump fell short, both eight years ago and this time.*

It is not even true that Trump’s latest figures are “the highest poll numbers I’ve ever had”. Immediately after his first inauguration, Rasmussen gave him a net rating of plus 10. That was out of line with other pollsters; and in any event, even Rasmussen’s figures soon declined. Three years later, Gallup gave him a positive net score four times in the early stages of the Covid pandemic, peaking at plus 4 in March 2020. Otherwise, he spent the whole of his first term in negative territory. The best Trump can legitimately claim is that he is doing slightly less badly today than one month after his first inauguration. His Gallup rating then was minus 11; this time it is minus 6.

As for his claim to enjoy “an approval rating today of 71 and another one of 69”, I have no idea where this comes from. According to the 538 website, 27 polls have been conducted by 15 different companies since Trump’s inauguration five weeks ago. Seven out of 11 polls gave him a positive rating in late January. Two out of 16 have done so this month.

The larger truth is that Trump has polarised American politics to an extraordinary degree. Public goodwill towards new presidents used to cross party boundaries far more than it does nowadays. Before Trump’s first victory, every newly elected president had a net rating one month in of at least plus 30. (Gerald Ford’s lower rating was because he became President following Richard Nixon’s resignation in disgrace and decided to pardon his predecessor. Likewise, Truman’s and Johnson’s stratospheric ratings should be regarded with caution: they followed the deaths of Roosevelt and Kennedy.)

Nor can Trump claim that his figures are close to, let alone better than, Joe Biden’s. Four years ago, Biden’s rating was plus 20, modest by historical standards but far better than Trump’s either this year or in 2016.

These findings should not surprise us. A number of Trump’s latest policies have gone down badly with American voters. YouGov’s poll last week for the Economist found that Americans oppose the following measures by margins of ten points or more:

Firing hundreds of thousands of US federal workers (support 34%, oppose 51%),

Imposing a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminium imports to the US (33-45%)

Allowing arrests of undocumented immigrants in places of worship (36-50%),

Renaming the Gulf of Mexico to the Gulf of America (30-52%),

Ending federal funding for schools and universities that require Covid-19 vaccination (37-48%),

Dropping federal corruption charges against New York Mayor Eric Adams (18-50%).

Nor is there much enthusiasm for America taking over Canada, Greenland or the Panama Canal.

Trump should hope that his ratings will improve if these things work out well. He cannot expect forgiveness if they don’t.

Prime Minister, I am not suggesting that you correct the President’s claims. He might not thank you for putting him right. In any event, your ratings are far worse than his. Your BEST rating this month is minus 18 (from Redfield and Wilton), your WORST minus 41 (More in Common).

Maybe you should simply reflect that both of you must govern without having had a post-election honeymoon, and with much of the media, both mainstream and social, hostile to what you are trying to do

* Note for nerds. The table omits the post-inauguration figures for presidents starting their second term. In their cases, however, they were simply carrying on in the White House, not returning to it after four years out of power. But, since you ask, these are Gallup’s one-month-in net scores for presidents continuing in office: Truman 1949, plus 33; Eisenhower 1957, plus 55; Johnson 1965, plus 50; Nixon 1973, plus 40; Reagan 1985, plus 29; Clinton 1997, plus 24; GW Bush 2005, plus 7; Obama 2013, plus 5. So Trump still comes last.