Voters are not as progressive as the Left claims

At least not yet. Supporters of radical policies should be honest about the state of public opinion - then campaign to change it

Labour’s exam question for the new year is: how can it reconnect with a tetchy electorate? Just before Christmas, an admirably clear report, Thin Ice, from Compass, a left-leaning campaign group, offered a firm answer. It received a lengthy, and friendly, write-up in the Guardian.

Its central argument is that Britain has an inbuilt progressive majority that Labour needs to woo by moving to the Left. It supports this view with new polling evidence. Thin Ice says: “the results are resoundingly in favour of progressive policies”.

I wish I could endorse this conclusion. Sadly, I can’t. I fear this is an example of a habit common to enthusiasts across the political spectrum: using polls for ammunition rather than analysis. Thin Ice looked for data that confirmed its outlook – and found it. Using the same format, I commissioned different questions. Their results tell a different story.

In both cases, reputable companies carried out the polls: Opinium (for Thin Ice) and Deltapoll (for me). The figures themselves can be trusted. It’s the conclusions that need to be scrutinised.

The questions all start by asking: “Would the Labour Party supporting the following issues make you feel more or less favourable towards them?” Two of the Opinium questions involved substantial amounts of public spending:

“Remove means testing for the winter fuel allowance, allowing all pensioners to claim it”

More favourable 49% / Less favourable 16% / Neither / don’t know 35%

“Universal basic income, where regular payments are provided to all citizens, regardless of income or employment status”

More favourable 38% / Less favourable 22% / Neither / don’t know 40%

In both cases, “more favourable” outnumber “less favourable”, though the large numbers saying “neither” or “don’t know” should warn us that much of public opinion is soft, and views could change.

In particular, those questions omit the issue of how to find the money to pay everyone a basic income and all pensioners the winter fuel allowance. My version, given to Deltapoll’s respondents, has the same preamble, but repairs that omission:

“Increasing taxes to allow all pensioners to receive the winter fuel allowance, without any means testing”

More favourable 37% / Less favourable 26% / Neither / don’t know 38%

“Increasing taxes to pay for every citizen to receive universal basic income”

More favourable 26% / Less favourable 34% / Neither / don’t know 40%

As those figures show, support for both measures falls sharply, when they are presented not as cost-free benefit but a tax-versus-spend trade-off. A plurality still favours ending the means test for the winter fuel allowance, but much more narrowly. Support for a universal basic income falls to one in four.

One other Thin Ice proposal does not produce a “progressive” plurality at all, even when its tax cost is omitted: just 29% told Opinium they would regard Labour more favourably if it removed the two-child cap on child benefit; 30% said they would regard Labour less favourably.

Tax-and-spend issues, then, divide the country. This does not mean that Labour can’t win an argument based on policies that raise more money to fund better services and a fairer society. The moral case is strong. But it does mean that there is currently no “progressive” majority for doing so.

Another set of results for Thin Ice addresses wider political and constitutional issues. Each of them is less attractive than the poll figures suggest.

“Devolving more authority to regional and local governments”

More favourable 35% / Less favourable 14% / Neither / don’t know 50%

Two decades ago the Blair government wanted each English region to have its own elected assembly. It found that support for this was highest in the North East, so it held the first referendum there, in order to set an example and build momentum in the rest of England.

The referendum campaign was a disaster. Opponents challenged the cost, and the need for an extra layer of elected politicians. Support for reform drained away. The plan was rejected by 78-22%. The whole England-wide project was abandoned. As with the tax-and-spend issues, the case for change is strong. But don’t assume public support for such a project will stay the course.

Voting reform tells a similar story. This is what Opinium found:

“The UK switching electoral systems from first-past-the-post to proportional representation so the seats in Parliament better reflect the share of votes each party receives”

More favourable 42% / Less favourable 13% / Neither / don’t know 45%

In 2010, in as part of the deal to take part in the Conservative-led coalition, Nick Glegg insisted on a referendum to change the voting system. To be fair, the proposal put to the public was very modest, and could not properly be described as proportional. However, it was a step in that direction. The Alternative Vote’s very modesty, for example keeping local constituencies, should have made it acceptable to voters who might be wary of a system that produced more fragmented election outcomes.

Early polls, in October 2010, pointed to a clear majority for change. ICM, which went on to give the most accurate eve-of-poll forecast, found a 56-35% majority for reform. But, as with regional devolution, the more voters heard about the plan, the less they liked it. Seven months later, it ended up being defeated by 68-32%.

As a general truth, it’s wise to treat with caution “peacetime” polls on issues of limited public interest. The results cannot be relied on to anticipate future enthusiasm or distaste. I, too, think our voting system needs changing; but I don’t cherish the illusion that millions of voters share my views.

Here’s another Thin Ice finding that isn’t quite as encouraging to the Left as it seems:

“Bringing the water network back into public ownership”

More favourable 51% / Less favourable 8% / Neither / don’t know 40%

The poll numbers are sufficiently strong to suggest that the tide of public opinion is running in favour of this policy. Polling research that I reported two years ago for the Tony Blair Institute also found widespread public support for nationalising all the big utilities – when the questions were posed in isolation. But the more our survey explored the issue, the clearer it became that few voters were exercised by the ideological arguments on either side. Their concerns were cost, quality, reliability and customer service.

Should the present government end up taking over, say Thames Water, there would be little public resistance. But to promote the principle of nationalisation as progressive imperative would be to misinterpret the public mood.

Let us turn to some issues that Thin Ice omitted, but I commissioned Deltapoll to ask, aqain with the same preamble about attitudes to Labour.

“Imposing a legal limit on immigration to reduce it immediately to less than 100,000 a year”

More favourable 54% / Less favourable 11% / Neither / don’t know 35%

“Imposing stricter conditions on people who claim welfare benefits because they are unemployed or have long-term health problems”

More favourable 40% / Less favourable 24% / Neither / don’t know 35%

“Abolishing overseas aid to countries in Africa and Asia”

More favourable 40% / Less favourable 26% / Neither / don’t know 35%

“Restoring the death penalty for people found guilty of murdering police officers”

More favourable 39% / Less favourable 26% / Neither / don’t know 35%

Personally, I dislike all these policies intensely. They would do far more harm than good. A savage cut to immigration would wreck the economy, the NHS and social care. Capital punishment has no place in a civilised society. And so on. But we cannot pretend that voters’ views are irrelevant or don’t exist. They contribute to the wider context in which a progressive party must seek support.

(By the same token, the Conservatives should acknowledge that most voters have turned against Brexit, now think the 2016 referendum vote was a mistake, and want closer relations with the European Union.)

As I hope this analysis has made clear, I back most of the policies favoured by Thin Ice. My quarrel is with its depiction of the public mood. Given that there need not be another general election for four years, here’s a proposal for progressives everywhere, be they government ministers, Compass supporters or anyone else. To be sure, public opinion matter. As a recovering pollster, I could scarcely say anything else. However, it should be used in the right way..

Here is my advice to Labour (and, indeed, all parties). First work out what policies are best for Britain, regardless of what the polls say. Then, and only then, take account of what voters think – and how to win over the doubters. Meanwhile my Labour friends should not pretend there is a firm majority for their progressive ideas when there simply isn’t.