The largest group of electors in 2024 is unmentioned as a factor in the analysis and predictions. Turnout nationally was 59.7%: 40.3% of people who had the right to vote decided not to bother. Labour's 33.7% of the national vote meant that it gained the support of only 19.8% of the electorate – but that gave it 63% of Commons seats. The choices of the 2 in 5 abstainers will be more important in detemining the shift between the parties in the next election than changes of mind as to which party voters support. The case for reform of the system by which we elect the national parliament, if democracy has as one of its aims both representation of national views and a degree of consensus, is undisputable, and urgent.
I am encouraged by the results of last week's by-elections for (formerly true-blue) Surrey County Council. In all three cases, LibDems won convincingly. In two seats Reform were second but in Guildford they were 4th with only 12%.
I’m currently reduced to consoling myself that Reform are the team that went 2-0 up too early in the game. 🫣
The largest group of electors in 2024 is unmentioned as a factor in the analysis and predictions. Turnout nationally was 59.7%: 40.3% of people who had the right to vote decided not to bother. Labour's 33.7% of the national vote meant that it gained the support of only 19.8% of the electorate – but that gave it 63% of Commons seats. The choices of the 2 in 5 abstainers will be more important in detemining the shift between the parties in the next election than changes of mind as to which party voters support. The case for reform of the system by which we elect the national parliament, if democracy has as one of its aims both representation of national views and a degree of consensus, is undisputable, and urgent.
Looks like Plaid Cymru have picked up the "anyone but Reform" vote in Caerphilly.
BBC News - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cly9rlj94x1t
Plaid Cymru wins Caerphilly by-election as Labour loses seat for first time ever - BBC News
"But if immigration dominates campaigning in 2029, Reform overcomes its teething troubles in the countries it runs."
I think you mean counties. They're not national yet!
I am encouraged by the results of last week's by-elections for (formerly true-blue) Surrey County Council. In all three cases, LibDems won convincingly. In two seats Reform were second but in Guildford they were 4th with only 12%.