I always thought that the 14% Reform got at the 2024 General Election was most likely a high water mark, not a solid base to build on. Almost every time we have an election that changes the party of government, after a week or two, we completely forget just how hated the previous government was, and how willing voters were to vote tactically to eject a sitting MP.
Reform's 14% share reflected that, in many constituencies, they were the main or a main party that could beat a sitting Tory. As such, that share will have included tactical votes. None of the pollsters ask "why" in questions of voting intention. Is it genuine support, or is it a plague on the houses of the two main parties? If we'd have been asking that, perhaps it would not be a surprise now that, because Labour & Tory are performing more seriously, Reform support is falling? I think they were always mainly a home for those despairing of years of identikit policies and now clearer policy differences are emerging, people are happier to support the mainstream parties.
To win in 2029 or be in a strong negotiating position Farage needs at least 300 more seats. Who are the candidates for these? Could they be managed or controlled in the Commons? Farage is struggling to shape the narrative with less than 10 MPs, few of whom are “organic” Reform. This will become a more urgent question as the GE approaches.
Impossible, many of them can barely form a sentence without the words ‘migrants boats’ being part of it. The Tory party rump will merge with Reform as will any other r wing stragglers, if Nige 🍺 has any chance of approaching No 10. Maybe Tories will have a resurgence anyway now Kemi has Not-A-Nazi-Anymore Adviser on hand.
This feels about right. Farage and Yusuf's presser today felt like a reheat. They have nothing new to offer except a more extreme version of what they said last time. No wonder people have moved on.
As always, an insightful, thoughtful and thought-provoking analysis. Thank you, Peter.
I always thought that the 14% Reform got at the 2024 General Election was most likely a high water mark, not a solid base to build on. Almost every time we have an election that changes the party of government, after a week or two, we completely forget just how hated the previous government was, and how willing voters were to vote tactically to eject a sitting MP.
Reform's 14% share reflected that, in many constituencies, they were the main or a main party that could beat a sitting Tory. As such, that share will have included tactical votes. None of the pollsters ask "why" in questions of voting intention. Is it genuine support, or is it a plague on the houses of the two main parties? If we'd have been asking that, perhaps it would not be a surprise now that, because Labour & Tory are performing more seriously, Reform support is falling? I think they were always mainly a home for those despairing of years of identikit policies and now clearer policy differences are emerging, people are happier to support the mainstream parties.
To win in 2029 or be in a strong negotiating position Farage needs at least 300 more seats. Who are the candidates for these? Could they be managed or controlled in the Commons? Farage is struggling to shape the narrative with less than 10 MPs, few of whom are “organic” Reform. This will become a more urgent question as the GE approaches.
Impossible, many of them can barely form a sentence without the words ‘migrants boats’ being part of it. The Tory party rump will merge with Reform as will any other r wing stragglers, if Nige 🍺 has any chance of approaching No 10. Maybe Tories will have a resurgence anyway now Kemi has Not-A-Nazi-Anymore Adviser on hand.
Let’s hope this is indeed the direction of travel. Long may it … accelerate …
This feels about right. Farage and Yusuf's presser today felt like a reheat. They have nothing new to offer except a more extreme version of what they said last time. No wonder people have moved on.
I wonder if Burnham might go for an election soon. Lots of announcements about help for consumers and some tough words on immigration.
He's inherited Starmer's King's Speech. He just needs the Lords to hold up a bill, and he's got an excuse to go to the country
We can but hope (you are correct).