Could a scenario simply be sufficient voters - not just from the centre and right but also from the 'old left' - concluding that voting for Reform isn't a wasted vote and there is genuinely an opportunity and critical mass for change at the next Election within FPTP? If Reform became the second party by numbers of seats at the next Election, becoming a future government could follow. Just how big is the growing pool of politically homeless voters I wonder?
Interesting article.What is missing is how the green elites roadmap to de-industralise the UK will bring real poverty to the poor and how A1 may wipe out many middle class jobs.
Felt SDP were unlucky in 81 i.e if Benn had beaten Healey and then if the Falklands war had not been a success which was not guaranteed.Despite being unlucky SDP were only maybe short of a million votes of getting many more MPs
Not sure who the 'Green Elites' are, but most pushing for greener policies are also pushing for more equality eg taxes on wealth? Those being pushed maybe less so ...
Also, if speculating on inevitably uncertain medium future, surely should mention the strong possibility of climate induced disasters (crop failures, flooding, vast migrations, ...) inducing a general recognition in voters that the current parties & voting system have misled & failed them ?
Interesting and plausible scenarios albeit alarming.
Certainly it would be disastrous if Farage became the English incarnation of Trump. If nothing else, he would sunder Scotland and possibly Wales from the UK.
But as the Brexit Party and UKIP rose before they busted, so will Reform, as did the BNP in Barking, as long as the populist bubble is strayed of oxygen.
Farage like Trump (and Mosley) is an entitled and privileged man who relies upon working class support whom he has litlke or nothing in common with, by playing upon latent prejudice and grievances, misinformation, and simplistic posturing.
Nothing new; so did Enoch Powell, in a different way and era but he as seen off by Ted Heath.
Unfortunately, we can't rely on Kemi B to do likwise, but Starmer's Labour need to treat the electorate with respect and honesty rather than as children, explain issues and trade offs clearly, and puncture myths and misinformation.
> Certainly it would be disastrous if Farage became the English incarnation of Trump. If nothing else, he would sunder Scotland and possibly Wales from the UK.
That wouldn't be a disaster, it'd be Scotland's liberation from Westminster.
Given the context of this excellent piece, I hope it's not too churlish to add to your comment about More in Common - "whose prediction of the seats won by the main parties was the closest of the MRP polls" - that their prediction of Lib Dem seat numbers was one of the most inaccurate. Which though I think reinforces your point about how widespread the distribution of seats across parties may well be at future elections, baring a Falkland Islands type event.
Could a scenario simply be sufficient voters - not just from the centre and right but also from the 'old left' - concluding that voting for Reform isn't a wasted vote and there is genuinely an opportunity and critical mass for change at the next Election within FPTP? If Reform became the second party by numbers of seats at the next Election, becoming a future government could follow. Just how big is the growing pool of politically homeless voters I wonder?
Interesting article.What is missing is how the green elites roadmap to de-industralise the UK will bring real poverty to the poor and how A1 may wipe out many middle class jobs.
Felt SDP were unlucky in 81 i.e if Benn had beaten Healey and then if the Falklands war had not been a success which was not guaranteed.Despite being unlucky SDP were only maybe short of a million votes of getting many more MPs
Not sure who the 'Green Elites' are, but most pushing for greener policies are also pushing for more equality eg taxes on wealth? Those being pushed maybe less so ...
Also, if speculating on inevitably uncertain medium future, surely should mention the strong possibility of climate induced disasters (crop failures, flooding, vast migrations, ...) inducing a general recognition in voters that the current parties & voting system have misled & failed them ?
Interesting and plausible scenarios albeit alarming.
Certainly it would be disastrous if Farage became the English incarnation of Trump. If nothing else, he would sunder Scotland and possibly Wales from the UK.
But as the Brexit Party and UKIP rose before they busted, so will Reform, as did the BNP in Barking, as long as the populist bubble is strayed of oxygen.
Farage like Trump (and Mosley) is an entitled and privileged man who relies upon working class support whom he has litlke or nothing in common with, by playing upon latent prejudice and grievances, misinformation, and simplistic posturing.
Nothing new; so did Enoch Powell, in a different way and era but he as seen off by Ted Heath.
Unfortunately, we can't rely on Kemi B to do likwise, but Starmer's Labour need to treat the electorate with respect and honesty rather than as children, explain issues and trade offs clearly, and puncture myths and misinformation.
> Certainly it would be disastrous if Farage became the English incarnation of Trump. If nothing else, he would sunder Scotland and possibly Wales from the UK.
That wouldn't be a disaster, it'd be Scotland's liberation from Westminster.
Given the context of this excellent piece, I hope it's not too churlish to add to your comment about More in Common - "whose prediction of the seats won by the main parties was the closest of the MRP polls" - that their prediction of Lib Dem seat numbers was one of the most inaccurate. Which though I think reinforces your point about how widespread the distribution of seats across parties may well be at future elections, baring a Falkland Islands type event.