Useful analysis. The other things to note are which ways the middle class vote. With so many middle class Labour voters working in universities (about to be allowed to go bankrupt by Labour - or at best shed tens of thousands of job), the NHS (where 100,000 jobs will go in NHS England) or local government (on its knees for decades), I suspect many will head off to the Greens or the LibDems. Labour are toast.
I think we're getting closer and closer to an election where progressive voters just think en masse 'Sod it, I'm going to vote how I want.' Even if it risks letting Reform in
Makes sense. I voted labour in 2019 and will definitely not vote for them in 2029 given the Starmer Betrayal. I don't mind if reform win, crash and burn but labour spineless labour don't deserve another chance or have their strategy validated.
This is how Tory voters talked about the Conservatives before and during the election, many going to Reform. My take is that Labour, like the Conservatives, are on the way out, they are just an election cycle behind them. I expect the Conservatives will be a tiny rump after 29 and labour will be the same after 34, probably to the benifit of the lib dems
As a South Asian living in Britain over more than fifty years, I had always voted Labour because I had found them to be more progressive than the other political parties. I would never vote for the Tories because of their historical links to colonialists. Neither would I vote for Reform because of their racism. But now, due to Starmer, I have no choice but to vote for the Libdems. I blame Starmer for losing the soul of Labour, maybe forever.
For me the big unknown, one rarely, if ever, anaylsed by any polling, is who the people who didn't turn are and how they feel.
The last General Election had a historically low turnout, at only 59% (compared to 70+ at least once since 2000). The local council elections & parliamentary by-elections from earlier this month were rather lower than that.
The media and political establishments are wetting themselves over Reform's 14% at the GE and 25%+ at the locals, but as a share of the electorate as a whole, they're on less than 10%.
Who is asking people why they didn't vote and what the main parties could do to persuade them to turn up on polling day?
The 41% who didn't show on 4th July 2024 could be the biggest influence on the next election, if only can be persuaded to turn up. But who are they?
Peter, thank you. Imo the discovery by the electorate that the gap between Tories and Starmer's Labour is so small especially on topics like NHS, Austerity, Immigration, Welfare is forcing a rethink. The two party system is now so discredited that a major upset becomes when GE29 comes about.
I should know better at my age....but the case for PR grows; not that anyone who matters will do anything about it. I have recently left the Labour Party and after 50 years or so of voting for them am not sure I will do so again. Reeves is not brave and is tied to Treasury Orthodoxy. We need bravery now. If Brown would accept, make him a Lord and bring him in to government to make a difference. And Rayner has some ideas about Tax.
‘can Labour rely on them (progressive voters) to hold their nose and vote for a government that they feel has let them down?’ I think so. Our preferred party may have failed us but when the other parties are variously corrupt, incoherent, inexperienced and unspeakable, I think progressive voters will look at the options, bite our collective lip, and vote least worst option. Which means giving Labour another try.
When you list all those populist shifts at the end, you do wonder what this government is for?
Useful analysis. The other things to note are which ways the middle class vote. With so many middle class Labour voters working in universities (about to be allowed to go bankrupt by Labour - or at best shed tens of thousands of job), the NHS (where 100,000 jobs will go in NHS England) or local government (on its knees for decades), I suspect many will head off to the Greens or the LibDems. Labour are toast.
I think we're getting closer and closer to an election where progressive voters just think en masse 'Sod it, I'm going to vote how I want.' Even if it risks letting Reform in
Agree that government getting its challenge fundamentally wrong
Makes sense. I voted labour in 2019 and will definitely not vote for them in 2029 given the Starmer Betrayal. I don't mind if reform win, crash and burn but labour spineless labour don't deserve another chance or have their strategy validated.
This is how Tory voters talked about the Conservatives before and during the election, many going to Reform. My take is that Labour, like the Conservatives, are on the way out, they are just an election cycle behind them. I expect the Conservatives will be a tiny rump after 29 and labour will be the same after 34, probably to the benifit of the lib dems
As a South Asian living in Britain over more than fifty years, I had always voted Labour because I had found them to be more progressive than the other political parties. I would never vote for the Tories because of their historical links to colonialists. Neither would I vote for Reform because of their racism. But now, due to Starmer, I have no choice but to vote for the Libdems. I blame Starmer for losing the soul of Labour, maybe forever.
For me the big unknown, one rarely, if ever, anaylsed by any polling, is who the people who didn't turn are and how they feel.
The last General Election had a historically low turnout, at only 59% (compared to 70+ at least once since 2000). The local council elections & parliamentary by-elections from earlier this month were rather lower than that.
The media and political establishments are wetting themselves over Reform's 14% at the GE and 25%+ at the locals, but as a share of the electorate as a whole, they're on less than 10%.
Who is asking people why they didn't vote and what the main parties could do to persuade them to turn up on polling day?
The 41% who didn't show on 4th July 2024 could be the biggest influence on the next election, if only can be persuaded to turn up. But who are they?
Peter, thank you. Imo the discovery by the electorate that the gap between Tories and Starmer's Labour is so small especially on topics like NHS, Austerity, Immigration, Welfare is forcing a rethink. The two party system is now so discredited that a major upset becomes when GE29 comes about.
I should know better at my age....but the case for PR grows; not that anyone who matters will do anything about it. I have recently left the Labour Party and after 50 years or so of voting for them am not sure I will do so again. Reeves is not brave and is tied to Treasury Orthodoxy. We need bravery now. If Brown would accept, make him a Lord and bring him in to government to make a difference. And Rayner has some ideas about Tax.
‘can Labour rely on them (progressive voters) to hold their nose and vote for a government that they feel has let them down?’ I think so. Our preferred party may have failed us but when the other parties are variously corrupt, incoherent, inexperienced and unspeakable, I think progressive voters will look at the options, bite our collective lip, and vote least worst option. Which means giving Labour another try.