There is a strong narrative that Starmer could now deploy for rejoining the EU and that is Britain’s security in the wake of the US disengagement from Europe. The world has changed dramatically since the Brexit referendum.
All so true and so predictable, and predicted, before the referendum AND before May’s Brexit means Brexit speech, AND before Mr (now Lord) Frost ‘negotiated’ the Trade & Cooperation deal. So, so sad. Notwithstanding the facts of life under that deal, which you illustrate very powerfully, I just don’t believe this government has the mettle to tackle the leap over the ‘stream’ that is needed.
Is one reason that the gov isn't pursuing a EU reset that they are committed to plans for Freeports and Enterprise Zones that would be incompatible with EU rules.
These areas were given permission using secondary legislation to avoid scrutiny. The need to keep these out of the public eye could be a reason they don't get mentioned with respect to EU realignment.
Thanks, and you’re right that there is light added to the numbers only story by hearing about the day to day issues from the businesses themselves ( and I disagree with the earlier commenter who states confidently that because they are the experiences of individual businesses they are irrelevant at the macro level).
A key issue in the UK is the media presentation of any moves to make trade with the EU easier. Oh the howls of betrayal that issue at the merest hint that there is value in working better together, not to mention the outrage if freedom of movement is even contemplated as being part of that. This remains a significant obstacle. As to the balance of whether this reflects or is guiding public opinion, well…..
Er they are irrelevant at the macro level. Let’s have a fact and economic conversation - if I am wrong you will have to show a statistically significant impact on our GDP growth vs that of the EU/EZ. Let me save you the time, there isn’t one.
Sure let’s make trade with the EU easier and I’m open to suggestions but we have a full quota and tariff free FTA with the EU the hard fact is that it’s pretty difficult to improve on that in any economically material sense, other than rejoining the EU.
The even harder fact about that which causes all the cognitive dissonance is that isn’t worth much economically to the UK either !
Why aren’t people honest and rather than (like Peter) disappear down economics rabbit holes deluding themselves that the economics are clear when they are not, it’s about identity and culture, not a few basis points of gdp growth.
It might be about culture, but that means a very different thing, if any thought about it at all, to the various constituencies that voted to leave. Those 'few basis points of GDP growth' may have made a significant difference to Reeve's calculations.
What an excellent insight into the woes of small business.
Back in October I did a random search for “ why do governments hate small businesses?” It was enlightening and I never anticipated that it was a topic for Harvard Business Review or that Trump successfully tapped into that theme to gain support from family businesses.
There is a growing body of evidence that both Treasury and what was the old Department for Trade and all its subsequent rebrands do not hate small businesses they just think they are irrelevant to the economy.
I am struck by the visceral hatred of many small business owners to Rachel Reeves simply because she utterly fails to understand the sector. Indeed is there anyone in the current Government that understands small business?
This lies at the heart of Labour response to Brexit- because they have no interest in the sector they do not understand the impact their actions have on a huge part of the British economy.
Ironically small businesses featured heavily in Corbyn’s manifesto.
In order to rejoin the EU or SM/CU (same thing) you will need to run and win a referendum. On the basis of a deal negotiated with the EU.
In order for that to be credible there would need to be full political alignment in the UK to rejoin otherwise there would be no serious conversation with the EU. Why would they hold negotiations when it was politically contested?
In practice this means the Tories and on the basis of current polling Reform hold a veto over rejoining.
On the basis of current facts it is literally impossible to rejoin the EU.
“fact that Brexit has cost Britain’s economy 4-5% of GDP”
Is quite untrue and is certainly not evident from GBP numbers vs the EU/EZ.
I assume you are referring to the OBR assessment that showed a long term loss of productivity I.e. GDP per capita growth of 4% in the long run.
1) GDP per capita growth is completely different to GDP as a measure
2) the assessment is in the long run which the OBR defines as 15 years, so the loss is by 2035 not now as you imply
3) the assessment is an average of 13 different assessments (frankly including an outlier) that defined the loss in productivity due to trade barriers and restrictions on immigration.
The immigration restrictions did not happen, in fact the opposite occurred. Therefore the assessments are over estimates of productivity loss.
When I studied history reference was made to a book denying Stalin’s purges. The author’s findings were dismissed with the line that “ clearly he never noticed the bus queues getting shorter “.
You really need to get and look around in the shops and speak to the owners.
Ok we are now into ‘lived experience’ territory rather than officially produced economic reports.
The cases in the article I am sure are accurate but are inconsequential at a macro level.
My point still stands, the entire thesis of this article is completely incorrect and the OBR analysis says so. There is no (or tiny) visible macroeconomic effect of Brexit visible in GDP vs the EU/EZ.
If you have an official economic analysis that supersedes the OBRs then you should reply with the link.
There is a strong narrative that Starmer could now deploy for rejoining the EU and that is Britain’s security in the wake of the US disengagement from Europe. The world has changed dramatically since the Brexit referendum.
All so true and so predictable, and predicted, before the referendum AND before May’s Brexit means Brexit speech, AND before Mr (now Lord) Frost ‘negotiated’ the Trade & Cooperation deal. So, so sad. Notwithstanding the facts of life under that deal, which you illustrate very powerfully, I just don’t believe this government has the mettle to tackle the leap over the ‘stream’ that is needed.
Is one reason that the gov isn't pursuing a EU reset that they are committed to plans for Freeports and Enterprise Zones that would be incompatible with EU rules.
These areas were given permission using secondary legislation to avoid scrutiny. The need to keep these out of the public eye could be a reason they don't get mentioned with respect to EU realignment.
Thanks, and you’re right that there is light added to the numbers only story by hearing about the day to day issues from the businesses themselves ( and I disagree with the earlier commenter who states confidently that because they are the experiences of individual businesses they are irrelevant at the macro level).
A key issue in the UK is the media presentation of any moves to make trade with the EU easier. Oh the howls of betrayal that issue at the merest hint that there is value in working better together, not to mention the outrage if freedom of movement is even contemplated as being part of that. This remains a significant obstacle. As to the balance of whether this reflects or is guiding public opinion, well…..
Er they are irrelevant at the macro level. Let’s have a fact and economic conversation - if I am wrong you will have to show a statistically significant impact on our GDP growth vs that of the EU/EZ. Let me save you the time, there isn’t one.
Sure let’s make trade with the EU easier and I’m open to suggestions but we have a full quota and tariff free FTA with the EU the hard fact is that it’s pretty difficult to improve on that in any economically material sense, other than rejoining the EU.
The even harder fact about that which causes all the cognitive dissonance is that isn’t worth much economically to the UK either !
Why aren’t people honest and rather than (like Peter) disappear down economics rabbit holes deluding themselves that the economics are clear when they are not, it’s about identity and culture, not a few basis points of gdp growth.
It might be about culture, but that means a very different thing, if any thought about it at all, to the various constituencies that voted to leave. Those 'few basis points of GDP growth' may have made a significant difference to Reeve's calculations.
What an excellent insight into the woes of small business.
Back in October I did a random search for “ why do governments hate small businesses?” It was enlightening and I never anticipated that it was a topic for Harvard Business Review or that Trump successfully tapped into that theme to gain support from family businesses.
There is a growing body of evidence that both Treasury and what was the old Department for Trade and all its subsequent rebrands do not hate small businesses they just think they are irrelevant to the economy.
I am struck by the visceral hatred of many small business owners to Rachel Reeves simply because she utterly fails to understand the sector. Indeed is there anyone in the current Government that understands small business?
This lies at the heart of Labour response to Brexit- because they have no interest in the sector they do not understand the impact their actions have on a huge part of the British economy.
Ironically small businesses featured heavily in Corbyn’s manifesto.
Hi Peter
Ps to add this is all displacement activity.
In order to rejoin the EU or SM/CU (same thing) you will need to run and win a referendum. On the basis of a deal negotiated with the EU.
In order for that to be credible there would need to be full political alignment in the UK to rejoin otherwise there would be no serious conversation with the EU. Why would they hold negotiations when it was politically contested?
In practice this means the Tories and on the basis of current polling Reform hold a veto over rejoining.
On the basis of current facts it is literally impossible to rejoin the EU.
You must know this.
Hi Peter
Your analysis up front is incorrect.
“fact that Brexit has cost Britain’s economy 4-5% of GDP”
Is quite untrue and is certainly not evident from GBP numbers vs the EU/EZ.
I assume you are referring to the OBR assessment that showed a long term loss of productivity I.e. GDP per capita growth of 4% in the long run.
1) GDP per capita growth is completely different to GDP as a measure
2) the assessment is in the long run which the OBR defines as 15 years, so the loss is by 2035 not now as you imply
3) the assessment is an average of 13 different assessments (frankly including an outlier) that defined the loss in productivity due to trade barriers and restrictions on immigration.
The immigration restrictions did not happen, in fact the opposite occurred. Therefore the assessments are over estimates of productivity loss.
Hi Mike
When I studied history reference was made to a book denying Stalin’s purges. The author’s findings were dismissed with the line that “ clearly he never noticed the bus queues getting shorter “.
You really need to get and look around in the shops and speak to the owners.
Ok we are now into ‘lived experience’ territory rather than officially produced economic reports.
The cases in the article I am sure are accurate but are inconsequential at a macro level.
My point still stands, the entire thesis of this article is completely incorrect and the OBR analysis says so. There is no (or tiny) visible macroeconomic effect of Brexit visible in GDP vs the EU/EZ.
If you have an official economic analysis that supersedes the OBRs then you should reply with the link.